3 predictions for L&D in 2026
What do the next twelve months have in store?
Happy 2026, Dispatcheronis!
Normally, I’d use the first edition of the New Year to lay out my goals for the next twelve months, as I did in 2024 and 2025.
But I’m not going to do that this year.
Instead, I’m breaking with that short-lived tradition and pinching one from the Hard Fork podcast, where hosts Kevin Roose and Casey Newton cap each year by sharing a high, medium and low-confidence prediction for the year ahead.
I’ll revisit these predictions in 2027 and see what I got right, where I slightly missed the mark, and what I got dead wrong.
So, what do I see as I gaze into my crystal ball?
😎 High confidence — AI will continue to be the hot topic at conferences, on podcasts, and in newsletters.
Okay, so this one feels like more of a pronouncement than a prediction.
AI was everywhere you looked last year, topping Donald Taylor’s Global Sentiment Survey with an unprecedented 22.6% of the vote, and dominating agendas on the conference circuit.
Even if you’re a dyed-in-the-wool AI skeptic, and wish the profession would focus on something (literally, anything!) other than LLMs, it’s a safe bet you’re going to get dragged into the AI discourse this year, whether you want to or not.
If I were to put just a little skin in the game with this prediction, I’d wager that the 2026 GSS (currently in the field), will show a very slight drop in AI’s vote-share, as it comes to be seen less as a ‘shiny object’ and more as a foundational technology that supports L&D’s broader goals.
🤔 Medium confidence — Linear courses will continue to be regarded as the default learning intervention.
Amidst all the buzz surrounding artificial intelligence, one argument you’ll often hear is that AI is going to usher in the end of the linear course, replacing it with adaptive experiences, agents and coaches that support learning and performance in the flow of work.
While I kinda sorta buy that argument, and there are undoubtedly organizations that are innovating in this space, I’d bet against the course going away any time soon.
As I wrote last year, if you look at how OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are teaching people to use LLMs, it’s not by deploying their own technology in novel ways. It’s through articles, videos and webinars packaged as, yes, linear courses!
Meanwhile, we know that to the extent that L&D teams are using AI tools, they’re primarily doing so for ‘creating learning content’ and ‘learning design tasks’.
A post-course future may well be possible now, but that doesn’t mean it will happen overnight. Or even within the next twelve months.
🥴 Low confidence — Budget pressure will force L&D to develop more mature approaches to measurement and evaluation.
As learning budgets come under increased scrutiny, L&D may decide to prioritize measurement and evaluation in 2026, in an effort to demonstrate impact.
It’s possible.
But I’ve chucked this into the ‘low confidence’ bucket as I think the more plausible scenario is that L&D teams will respond to budget pressure by using AI to do what they’ve always done, just faster and at lower cost.
Not wanting to end this first Dispatch of the year on a pessimistic note, let me reframe the above as an inspiring call to action…
If you believe the work you do has a meaningful impact on your organization, but you’re currently only measuring engagement and completion, then 2026 is the year to develop a robust evaluation strategy!
Of course, if you need a hand with this, we’re always happy to help. 😉
Want to share your own predictions for 2026? Looking for support on your next project? Then get in touch by emailing custom@mindtools.com or reply to this newsletter from your inbox.
🎧 On the podcast
Since its first release in 1978, A Manager’s Guide to Self-Development has been one of the go-to texts for new and aspiring managers. Now in its seventh edition, authors Mike Pedler and Joan Keevil joined Gemma and Ross G on The Mindtools L&D Podcast last week to discuss:
why self-development is so key to a manager’s capabilities
what has changed since the first edition of the book as published (hat tip to Michelle Ockers for this question)
some of our favorite exercises from the book, to help us develop as managers.
Check out the episode below. 👇
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Spotify or the podcast page of our website.
📖 Deep dive
In L&D, it’s widely accepted that giving learners choice and agency over their experiences increases engagement and motivation.
But is there such a thing as too much choice?
Although it doesn’t specifically examine choice in the context of learning design, a 2025 study appears to confirm that excessive choice can be a bad thing.
Across two experiments, participants chose between different numbers of options (from one up to sixteen) and rated how much control they felt, how pleasant the experience was, and how effortful it seemed. The task itself was simple and consequence-free, allowing the study to focus purely on the experience of choosing.
The key finding from the experiments was that perceived control and pleasantness peak at around four options. Beyond that, choice becomes less enjoyable and more effortful.
The authors note:
‘[…] participants favor situations in which some choice (i.e., about four choice options) is given, leading to a maximum of sense of control and pleasantness of choice. For higher numbers of choice options, the selection effort increases, and the pleasantness of the selection process decreases, potentially due to an overburdening of individuals with too many options. A potential application of these results could be online platforms with multiple-step selection processes, offering a limited number of options at any point to facilitate the selection process for consumers while still offering the breadth of available options, thus fostering sense of agency and thereby reducing choice overload.’
Shoutout to Matt Furness for bringing this one to my attention!
Schwarz, K. A. (2025). ‘Perceived control and the pleasantness of choosing: How much choice is too much choice?’ Current Research in Behavioral Sciences, 8, 100174.
👹 Missing links
📼 How video podcasts took over streaming
If you had to guess, what would you say is the most popular streaming service for podcasts? Spotify? Maybe Apple Podcasts? As it turns out, YouTube is now the top platform for podcast consumption. Like me, Daniel Parris found this stat astounding. So he decided to do a little research, digging into the rise of the video podcast in a recent edition of his ever-excellent Stat Significant newsletter.
Along with the three predictions he shares on the Hard Fork podcast, Casey Newton provides a more expansive list on his newsletter, Platformer. Amongst his tech predictions this year is that AI will have a dramatic impact on the role of software engineers in 2026, but a much less dramatic impact on other professions.
🧐 What do you actually do again?
If you work in L&D and have ever tried to explain your job to friends and family, you’ll doubtless be able to relate to this pre-Christmas LinkedIn post from Rony Rozen. In it, Rony challenges us to see the question ‘What is it you actually do again?’ not as an irritation, but as the ultimate executive communication training — ‘If you can explain your impact to your family without them glazing over, you can pitch anyone.’ More than ten years into my L&D career, I’ve yet to achieve this feat!
👋 And finally…
How to drink coffee like an influencer:
👍 Thanks!
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